No Deal, No Deterrence: Iran’s Rise in a New Geopolitical Triangle
Elkhan Nuriyev argues that relying on outdated assumptions about Iran’s isolation risks policy failure.
The United States is heading toward a strategic collision with Iran, with implications that extend far beyond Washington. Despite resumed nuclear talks in Muscat, diplomacy is unlikely to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Not because of tactical missteps, but because the world — and Iran’s position within it — has changed.
While negotiations continue, Washington has not eased its pressure. The United States has imposed new separate sanctions packages on Iran in April alone, targeting sectors from missile development to financial networks. The cost of drawn-out diplomacy is mounting, and Tehran faces increasing pressure to shift its strategy or absorb deeper economic pain.
The current impasse is no longer about centrifuges or sanctions. It reflects a hardening geopolitical triangle that now links Iran with Russia and China, a partnership that is reshaping power dynamics across the Middle East and influencing global strategic stability. Policymakers worldwide must recognize that the stakes go beyond the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); they concern the credibility of international deterrence efforts and the risk of a wider regional conflict.
The Strategic Triangle: Iran, Russia, and China
Iran is no longer isolated; it is emboldened and active across the region, from Gaza to Iraq, increasingly aligned with anti-Western forces. Russia, deeply engaged in Ukraine, has turned to Tehran for drone support. In return, Moscow has reportedly transferred advanced missile and satellite technologies—a growing military partnership that benefits both sides. Meanwhile, China provides diplomatic cover and economic support, deepening Iran’s insulation from Western pressure.
This trilateral alignment gives Iran not only strategic depth but also greater confidence in resisting international demands. The JCPOA framework, once a central pillar of non-proliferation efforts, is now out of step with these new realities. Iran is no longer merely a nuclear threshold state; it is a key actor in a multipolar order less receptive to traditional Western-led negotiation models.
In this high-stakes game, Russia’s role is particularly significant. Beyond supplying military systems and advanced technologies, Moscow acts as both a strategic partner and geopolitical buffer. In an era of renewed containment, Iran sees this relationship as critical to resisting Western isolation and maintaining its regional leverage.
Moscow, for its part, views Iran as a valuable asset in its broader confrontation with the West. The two countries are closely aligned on the International North-South Transport Corridor that connects India to Europe via Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia—deepening their interdependence. It is no surprise that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently paid a visit to Moscow, where he held consultations with officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, with U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine and arms control, Iran could become a key bargaining chip in these broader geopolitical talks.
The Kremlin may not wish to see Iran dragged into a full-scale war. Yet it also benefits from a simmering conflict that distracts the U.S., raises oil prices, and deepens divisions in NATO and the Gulf states.
Simultaneously, China’s role in the Iran-Russia-China nexus is increasingly influential. As part of its broader strategy to challenge the Western-led global order, Beijing has strengthened its economic ties with Tehran through trade agreements, oil imports, and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. This support allows Iran to circumvent sanctions and gain access to much-needed technology and investment, further insulating it from Western pressure. Though China remains less visible in Middle East diplomacy than Russia, its economic engagement with Iran is both significant and deepening.
China was instrumental in brokering the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries, a landmark deal that underscores Beijing’s long-term interest in Iran. As a major purchaser of Iranian oil, China provides Tehran with a critical revenue stream, reinforcing its position as an economic lifeline in the face of international sanctions. This growing economic interdependence also strengthens China’s leverage in the region, providing Beijing with an important foothold in the Middle East.
While China refrains from high-profile involvement in Iran-U.S. talks, its interests in the region are undeniable. Beijing has no desire for a full-scale war that would disrupt global energy markets or destabilize its Belt and Road projects. However, a distracted United States, embroiled in a prolonged conflict or crisis in the Middle East, would present significant opportunities for China. Such a scenario would allow Beijing to expand its influence in Iran and the broader region, particularly in Central Asia, while further diminishing Western influence. As the U.S. faces the dual challenge of containing Russia and managing its commitments in the Middle East, China stands poised to strengthen its strategic foothold in a rapidly changing global order.
The Declining Influence of Diplomacy and Deterrence
The urgency of the situation is underscored by Iran’s continued uranium enrichment, now approaching weapons-grade levels. Western intelligence assessments acknowledge that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear device in a matter of weeks. While Tehran has not resumed full weaponization, its breakout timeline continues to shrink. In early May, Iran reasserted its right to enrich uranium as further talks with the United States were delayed.
Moreover, the absence of a formal agreement has not restored deterrence — it has eroded it. The missile exchange between Iran and Israel—following the deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus in April 2024—showed how fast the region could unravel. Tehran’s unprecedented retaliation, involving over 300 drones and missiles, signaled a new willingness to engage in direct confrontation.
This development is indicative of a broader shift in the regional security environment. Iran’s direct military response to Israel is a stark departure from its previous posture of indirect confrontation through proxy networks. This new phase of regional dynamics suggests that Tehran may be more willing to directly challenge Israel and other Western allies, further complicating the deterrence calculus.
If full-scale war were to erupt, the consequences could destabilize adjacent regions. In particular, a military conflict with Iran could trigger a refugee crisis among millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis in northwestern Iran, placing significant strain on neighboring Azerbaijan and Russia’s Dagestan region and undermining the already fragile security architecture of the South Caucasus-Central Asia corridor. This potential shock to regional stability must be factored into any forward-looking deterrence strategy.
Rethinking Policy Responses
Quiet diplomacy and sanctions alone are unlikely to shift this trajectory. What is needed is a recalibrated approach that addresses the broader strategic context. Western governments, particularly the United States and its European allies, should consider three key policy responses:
1. Clarify Strategic Objectives: Diplomacy must be rooted in clear goals and credible red lines. If reviving the JCPOA is no longer viable, policymakers must develop an alternative framework that combines deterrence with robust regional diplomacy. This strategy should recognize the shifting geopolitical dynamics, particularly the growing influence of the Russia-China-Iran triangle, and focus on the broader issue of strategic stability in the Middle East.
2. Reassess Deterrence Postures: The evolving Iran-Russia-China nexus poses new risks to Gulf security. Existing military deployments and partnerships must be reviewed to ensure they are sufficient to deter adventurism or escalation. Given the increased military capabilities of Iran, including its growing arsenal of advanced drones and missile systems, U.S. and allied forces in the region must be prepared for more aggressive actions from Tehran. This includes reconsidering the role of military deterrence and the potential for further escalation with Iran’s growing military sophistication.
3. Bolster Multilateral Coordination: Preventing nuclear proliferation and countering Iran’s broader influence — from proxy networks to cyber capabilities — will require renewed transatlantic and regional cooperation, as well as coordination with key players in Asia and the Global South. A multilateral approach is essential to counter Iran’s growing regional influence and its expansion of military capabilities. Stronger coordination with European allies and countries in the Middle East, along with a concerted effort to limit Iran’s access to technologies from Russia and China, will be critical to any future diplomatic efforts.
Moving Beyond Complacency
A more assertive and realistic policy does not imply a rush to confrontation. But strategic complacency is no longer tenable. Relying on outdated assumptions about Iran’s isolation risks policy failure. Tehran’s advancing nuclear ambitions and growing military capabilities demand a stronger, more coordinated response.
The window to shape outcomes, rather than merely respond to crises, is narrowing. For the global policy community, now is the time to rethink the architecture of nuclear diplomacy and regional deterrence — before the next collision becomes inevitable.
Elkhan Nuriyev is a Senior Fellow with the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin. He previously served as a Fulbright Scholar at the George Washington University and held senior research positions at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, the German Council on Foreign Relations, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. He is a Global Energy Associate at the Brussels Energy Club and a Senior Expert on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia at LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory in Vienna.
Photo by Kamran Gholami
