This study investigates how fragmented governance shapes the Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) contributions to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 8 and 9. Although the BRI's stated objectives align with the SDG agenda, empirical evidence from EU countries reveals that institutional fragmentation and policy misalignment can significantly hinder sustainable development outcomes. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study applies Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to a corpus of 321 BRI-related policy documents to extract thematic patterns and assess their semantic alignment with SDG 8 and 9 keyword frameworks. It then analyzes governance fragmentation at the domestic level, EU-member states level, and China-EU level, complemented by case studies of Italy, Poland, Croatia, and Slovenia to explore how different levels of fragmentation impede BRI project implementation and weaken SDG progress. The findings reveal three key insights: (1) BRI-related discourse demonstrates moderate alignment with SDGs 8 and 9 in terms of policy narratives; (2) governance fragmentation in EU countries is multi-dimensional and structurally embedded; and (3) fragmentation undermines BRI project continuity and its developmental impact. This research proposes a three-pronged policy framework comprising politically neutral commitment mechanisms, EU-compatible regulatory alignment guidelines, and adaptive pathways for SDG compliance—designed to strengthen institutional coherence and enhance the sustainability of cross-border BRI cooperation.
Policy implications
- Introduce politically neutral continuity mechanisms—such as minimum implementation periods, bipartisan oversight, or jointly managed monitoring systems—to protect BRI cooperation from the volatility of leadership turnover and coalition instability in EU member states.
- Strengthen confidence-building measures and transparent communication channels to mitigate the risks posed by sudden geopolitical shifts in perceptions of Chinese involvement.
- Develop a standardized regulatory compatibility guide for BRI projects, ensuring early-stage assessment of compliance with EU procurement rules, competition policy, security frameworks, and environmental standards.
- Encourage co-structuring of projects with EU-based or local partners to enhance legitimacy, share compliance responsibilities, and reduce perceptions of unilateral Chinese influence.
- Prioritize those SDG 8 and SDG 9 targets that offer the greatest feasibility and marginal impact in each national context, rather than attempting uniform coverage of all targets.
- Integrate third-party certification, environmental monitoring, and transparent reporting mechanisms into project planning, thereby addressing EU concerns regarding ESG standards and strengthening alignment with host-country objectives.
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