Cycles of Violence and Cycles of Technology: Paris's Fourth Quarter and the World's Future
Ahead of COP21, Carter Page argues that in global governance and cooperation throughout recent decades, a stark contrast has emerged between the level of success seen in the realm of international security and energy development.
On many levels, the final quarter of 2015 could become an exceptional turning point in the history of France and the world. While initial steps to intensify continued patterns of war have grown since the tragic terrorist attacks of November 13, world leaders, civil society and business executives have prepared to participate in a critically important event which could help fundamentally redefine that trajectory and in turn the world's future. After years of intensive preparation by France and governments worldwide, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) is scheduled to begin in Le Bourget in the Northern suburbs of Paris on Monday, November 30. With pledges by over 150 states to make material changes to their emissions profile over the coming years, the forum offers a rare opportunity to find common ground amidst other sources of geopolitical conflict.
While the fields of war and energy have undeniably overlapped throughout the ages including in Iraq, the dramatic confluence of these events around Paris in the final months of 2015 hold special significance. Amongst trends in global governance and cooperation throughout recent decades, a stark contrast has emerged between the level of success seen in the realm of international security and energy development. Technological advances across renewables, lower carbon natural gas, as well as oil have quickly facilitated monumental changes in key global energy markets as the price of most resources have generally trended lower. Given these important step changes as well as a growing political consensus worldwide toward addressing climate and environmental degradation, the COP21 conference offers an important venue for potential breakthroughs.
Similar to the ways in which George W. Bush leveraged the new political support he gained in the wake of September 11, François Hollande now has a fleeting opportunity to build upon the support that scores of world leaders have pledged this week. In contrast to his father who made stronger efforts to build an international coalition to take on Saddam Hussein, the younger Bush sought an expedited pathway and more of a go-it-alone strategy. In the wake of similar threats and attacks on his nation's homeland, Hollande has been quick and resolute with his moves in the direction of more intensified warfare. Yet while the depth of the resultant military coalition may once again be limited today, the COP21 talks have the potential for more lasting political change.
Although vast progress has been observed in the energy technology space throughout recent years, international security has taken a turn for the worse during that same period. After over $1 trillion invested by the United States in its military adventures in Iraq, the situation on the streets of that neighbourhood has seldom been worse. Further exacerbating the situation, in 2015 Western states have grown more confused than ever regarding appropriate security strategies despite the many lives perished, money wasted and years lost in their learning processes. The scars remaining from the response by the George W. Bush Administration to the September 11 terror attacks should hold great significance in the wake of the events in Paris.
Although former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley has not gained traction in the U.S. Presidential race, he has been quoted as making statements with some inherent logic: "One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation-state of Syria and the rise of ISIS was the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that region, wiped out farmers, drove people to cities, created a humanitarian crisis. It created the symptoms, or, rather, the conditions, of extreme poverty, that has led now to the rise of ISIL and this extreme violence."
His statement has been backed up by hard research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was quoted as saying, “We must annihilate the enemies of the republic, kick out all of these radical imams, as we are already doing, strip those who besmirch the French spirit of their nationality.”
But of perhaps greater historic significance, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius unequivocally confirmed in the days following the Paris attacks that the COP21 Summit will go ahead under enhanced security. This brave resolve should be followed by proportional commitments and strong action by all parties. The potential impact of such progressive moves could have a far more lasting impact on future generations than most tactics which may be tried on the battlefield and in the skies above Syria and Iraq.
Some cynical commentators have been quick to highlight potential challenges that may arise given the close chronological proximity between the Paris attacks and the COP21 summit. Strong leadership, perseverance and commitment can effectively prevent such negative scenarios.
In the Philippines at this week's APEC Summit, Barack Obama has begun to do exactly that. On a Wednesday morning panel with Jack Ma and an entrepreneur from the Philippines as well as in other sessions at this gathering, the U.S. President underscored the critical importance of current climate change negotiations and initiatives. While much more public attention has been focused on the dramatic events in Paris than on these technically detailed projects, such a longer term perspective implemented in coalition with French President Hollande and other world leaders can help create significant improvements for the future.
Despite this vision, other recent experiences of the Obama Administration have illustrated the headwinds often faced as citizens wish that their leaders "do something" to address the threat of IS. But the new calls to "do something more" pose even greater downside. Any intensification of war by France in partnership with its allies may carry significantly greater retribution risk than that which the United States faced in the wake of September 11. The larger presence of Muslim communities in Paris, throughout the country and across Europe as well as the current limitations on their integration into French society have created new challenges. Focusing instead on a more progressive approach at COP21 by exploring ways to integrate the Muslim minority into such future commitments by France and other countries could represent a smarter approach that effectively addresses both strategic challenges.
Carter W. Page is Founder and Managing Partner of Global Energy Capital LLC. He is a Fellow at the Center for National Policy in Washington and a Columnist for Global Policy Journal.
