Russia's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 marked the culmination of Russia's dissociation from the project of institutionalised pan-European security and from the global liberal order more generally. While not denying the relevance of studying the causes of Russia's attacks on Ukraine, this study focuses on Russia's progressing dissociation from Western institutions that preceded the escalation of military tensions. Processes of dissociation—defined as the intentional distancing from the core rules and norms of institutions—occur rather often and might even become a dominant feature of world politics as deglobalisation proceeds. However, this phenomenon has rarely been tackled in academic research. What has been overlooked in the scholarly debate is the specific forms and underlying causes of dissociations from multilateral arrangements. Delving into the controversial history of Russia's drifting away from the European security regime complex after the end of the Cold War this paper demonstrates why Russia's leadership felt so estranged from the order whose creation it actively endorsed. Based on more than 30 interviews with experts of Russian foreign policy as well as Russian and Western diplomats and policymakers, this paper demonstrates how Moscow's disenchantment with European security institutions intensified as these institutions appeared in the Kremlin's eyes structurally unresponsive to evolving dynamics in Russian-Western relations.
Policy implications
- Deglobalization and international institutions: As deglobalization progresses, states may re-evaluate international institutions as liabilities rather than assets. Contrary to common assumptions, certain institutional memberships might increase the likelihood of conflict if institutions prove structurally unresponsive to key members’ reform attempts. This can lead to more aggressive strategies by members contesting rules and norms, intensifying tensions with other states.
- Reframing the Russian-Western conflict: A fresh perspective on the Russian-Western conflict challenges the prevailing blame placed on Russia. Instead, the study emphasizes the role of international institutions as active contributors to the crisis. By focusing on institutional interactions, the investigation unveils a previously overlooked dimension of the conflict, urging a nuanced understanding beyond portraying institutions as mere victims of interstate competition.
- Russia's dissociation from European security institutions: Russia's dissociation from European security institutions wasn’t predetermined and could have been more civilized. However, institutional irresponsiveness to evolving Russian-Western relations led to a confrontative dissociation, escalating tensions. The study underscores the importance of institutions adapting to changing dynamics to avoid conflicts and suggests a need for re-evaluation in international institutional frameworks.
- Value convergence in European security: Despite Western insistence on Russia meeting specific civilizational standards for European institutions, the EU's successful interactions with autocracies elsewhere highlight the potential for alternative approaches. To find institutional solutions with post-Putin Russia, Western policymakers could draw on their experiences with states whose values do not converge with their own, thereby reconsidering the assumed necessity of value convergence for stable relations with external actors.
Photo by Engin Akyurt