How External Digital Actors Are Influencing Bangladesh's Political Discourse Ahead of the 2026 Election

Arafatur Rahaman argues that Bangladesh needs to act now to avoid cross-border digital election manipulation and points the way with concrete policies. 

Bangladesh's next parliamentary election, scheduled for February 12, 2026, is going to be challenged by social and new media as never before. Online activists and influencers (foreign online actors) have already weaponized social media platforms to construct their own political narratives. They inundate digital platforms with A.I.-generated propaganda and misinformation. They exploit religious divisions. Young voters have become targets of emotional manipulation. The information war has already begun and its outcome will determine whether 127.6 million voters of  Bangladesh can exercise genuine democratic choice or become pawns in a geopolitical chess game. 

On December 18, 2025, violence erupted in Bangladesh after the announcement of the death of a prominent youth cultural activist (an aspirant Member of Parliament), Sharif Osman Hadi, who was gunshot by masked assailants one week ago after the Bangladeshi election commission (EC) announced a date for the first elections since the July uprising in 2024. As the news of the death broke out, thousands of people gathered in Dhaka to demonstrate protest against this brutal political killing. 

Followed by massive mob violence, demonstrators vandalised the offices of two leading Bangladeshi newspapers, Prothom Alo & The Daily Star and set fire to both of the buildings. This mob also assaulted Nurul Kabir, the Editor of the New Age and president of the Editors' Council. This happened for the first time in the history of Bangladesh, following its independence in 1971. The call for vandalism came from two online activists, one from New York (U.S.A) & another from Paris (France), respectively Elius Hussain and Pinaki Bhattacharjo. On the same night, a hindu devotee named Dipu Chandra Das was brutally burned alive on the pretext of blasphemy of religion, in Bhaluka of Mymensingh and also set fire to the prominent cultural institution- Chhayanaut. 

External Forces Shape Election Discourse

Digital propaganda no longer respects borders. Between July and September 2025, fact-checkers documented systematic AI-generated campaigns targeting Bangladesh's political landscape. These campaigns exclusively favor certain parties while attacking opponents through synthetic media.

The pattern extends beyond Bangladesh. Studied in several countries, AI-generated misinformation is primarily targeted at public figures and politicians. During the period from October to November 2024, the number of election-related disinformation in Bangladesh had doubled compared to the previous quarter.

There are multiple interferences from outside of the border. At least 13 fake reports on Bangladesh were circulated in the Indian media between August and December of the year 2024. Republic Bangla alone propagated five rumors. The Hindustan Times, Zee News, and Live Mint each spread three false reports targeting minorities and fabricating violence statistics.

First-Time Voters Face Emotional Warfare

Bangladesh's 50 million social media users create massive vulnerability. First-time and young voters represent the most susceptible demographic. Recent evidence suggests that- adolescents struggle to detect false information despite having high confidence in their judgment.

The manipulation exploits developmental vulnerabilities. Adolescents are experiencing a rapid social, emotional and cognitive development where increases in susceptibility are made through the use of emotional influence. They judge the severity of harm by how it feels rather than what is objectively accurate.

Research on similar tactics in Southeast Asia provides alarming parallels. Edited video, false story and emotive framing mobilize supporters and attack opponents. These are tactics that only serve to further polarize and undermine trust in democratic practices. Bangladesh has similar risks with its youthful voting populace.

Identity-based narratives prove particularly effective. Religious identity, linguistic nationalism and generational grievances become weaponized in online activity through targeted content. Emotional stories are more likely to be shared online and those were spread faster than those based on facts. Social media algorithms find and promote divisive content. Misinformation takes advantage of outrage to go viral among networks of young people.

Religious Fault Lines Under Digital Attack

Bangladesh's history reveals how misinformation triggers violence. Religious misinformation exerts persistent, intense and widespread influence on society. Research shows nearly half of users simultaneously endorse radical views, react negatively and trust the misinformation they encounter.

Radical issues dominate users' discourse at 60.4%, followed by political issues at 37.1%. User reactions are primarily negative at 94.1%, exhibiting destructive behaviors. Negative reactions outnumber positive reactions seventeen to one.

The unrest on August 5, 2024, demonstrated the deadly consequences of digital radicalization. Algorithmic amplifications studied shows framing of minority and student activists as enemies of the state. Closed messaging platforms like Telegram and WhatsApp have become hotbeds for radical discussions. Live videos and incendiary ideas found an enthusiastic audience among millions within minutes on mainstream platforms like Facebook.

Mob Violence Through Digital Mobilization

Social media not only spreads misinformation — it incites physical violence. Studies have supported the relationship between online hate speech and physical violence in the offline world. It has been proven that hate speech decreases trust between communities and is connected to direct online victimisation and offline violence.

This mechanism is confirmed by the events that occurred after August 2024. Schools, public places, highways, and 162 rural incidents of mob violence had over 120 incidents recorded. Victim after victim received lynchings, public humiliation and extrajudicial murders engineered entirely through social media platforms.

Platform algorithms amplified polarizing narratives, suppressed dissenting voices, and curated viral misinformation, leading to collective action without institutional gatekeepers. Misinformation intended to inflame religious zeal displays trends: manipulated photos of religious acts result in communal violence. These campaigns intentionally prey on religious and cultural divisions in order to turn out their voters.

AI-Generated Fakes Flood the System

Between July to September 2025, pro-government outlets and influencers used AI tools to produce deepfakes spreading disinformation against opposition parties and foreign actors. The technology is accessible. The harm is measurable. An August 2025 synthetic image showed students demanding Sheikh Hasina's return. The image was fake. The potential for violence was real. Recent research shows that 60.88% of Bangladeshi users trust the misinformation they encounter.

Bangladesh has only 40 to 50 professional fact checkers for a population of 170 million. The majority do not have their own verification desks. The capacity gap is enormous. The problem is only growing as generative AI software improves and becomes more affordable.

The Freedom of Expression Dilemma

In Bangladesh, we must strike a balance between combating misinformation & upholding freedom of speech. Research demonstrates that- majority of citizens are in favour of suppressing damaging misinformation as opposed to defending free speech when damages are severe. When misinformation poses a threat to public safety or democratic processes, people seem to support action — such as taking down posts or suspending accounts. 

However, regulation without protections becomes censorship. Recent regulatory frameworks enacted hastily before elections lack stakeholder consultation. They fail to clarify definitions or provide protections against arbitrary enforcement of law and order in the digital landscape. This approach threatens legitimate critique and dissent.

The solution requires transparency, accountability and independent oversight. Digital media and social media's content moderation must follow consistent rules that citizens accept as legitimate. Government participation in public discourse is appropriate. Government coercion is not (Hwang, 2025). Effective regulation must prioritize less restrictive alternatives. It must establish clear boundaries on government involvement. 

Strategic Imperatives: Five Critical Actions

Bangladesh's next democratic transition and sustainability depend on immediate, coordinated responses across five fronts.

First, need to build counter-narrative infrastructure immediately to combat misinformation. Scale from 50 to 500 professional fact-checkers before February 2026. This initiative requires urgent funding, training programs and institutional support. Establish verification desks in all major media outlets. Train journalists to identify AI-generated content. Create rapid response teams for election-related claims. Deploy mobile apps helping citizens identify manipulation techniques.

Second, protect first-time and young voters. Implement media literacy programs targeting 18-25 age groups. Teach verification skills in schools and universities. Use game-based learning to improve detection skills. Partner with youth organizations to spread critical thinking education. Create peer-to-peer verification networks among student groups.

Third, enhance platform accountability through legal and market pressure. Require social media companies to provide transparent algorithms. Establish response time standards for reported content. Create public dashboards tracking misinformation trends. Impose penalties for systematic failures to remove hate speech inciting violence.

Fourth, establish dedicated teams tracking content targeting minorities, women candidates, and religious communities. Create legal consequences for hate speech inciting violence with actual prosecution, not just abstract penalties. Build rapid intervention mechanisms for individuals identified in viral attack campaigns. Provide security support for candidates facing coordinated harassment.

Fifth, maintain equilibrium in regulation through independent scrutiny. Only use content moderation systems that are developed in consultation with stakeholders. Incorporate judicial safeguards to prevent abuse. Distinguish between harmful misinformation and legitimate political speech. Establish a process for appealing wrongfully censored material. 

The Window Is Closing

Bangladesh faces a choice. We either invest in building democratic resilience today, or we risk our own information ecosystem spiraling into permanent manipulation by foreign powers. The next election in February 2026 is not only for the representative of the people of Bangladesh, but also for whether we control our democratic narrative.

Bangladesh must act. Not after the election. Not when violence erupts. Now. Before external narratives completely overwhelm local democratic voices. Before young voters lose faith in the very possibility of authentic political participation. Before the information war becomes unwinnable.

The choice is clear. The time is now. Bangladesh's democratic future hangs in the balance.

Arafatur Rahaman is a Research Analyst from Southeast University, Bangladesh, and Co-founder & Executive Director of Adroit Discovery Lab. He can be reached at: a.rahaman133@gmail.com. His work bridges academic research and policy analysis, offering evidence-based insights on financial institutions, investment flows, crisis governance, political economy, digital transformation, and gender-inclusive development in emerging economies.

Photo by Anete Lusina