Strategic Minerals, Strategic Partners: A Data-Driven Framework for U.S.-DRC Cooperation

Angesom Teklu, argues that to secure critical mineral supply chains in the DRC, the United States must move beyond reactive diplomacy and adopt a data-driven investment framework prioritizing technology transfer and local capacity building.

The global landscape is currently defined by an escalating demand for critical mineral resources, indispensable for the digital economy and advanced military hardware. Among these, cobalt is of profound importance due to its integral role in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage. Projections indicate that the demand for cobalt will rise significantly up to 37 times by 2030. Cobalt is predominantly sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where about 70% of the world's cobalt reserves are located.

Over the past two decades, Beijing has secured significant stakes in many of the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) largest mines through "resource-for-infrastructure" deals, a concentration of market power that the United States has largely failed to contest. U.S. dependence exposes the economy and military to potential supply disruptions and coercion. 

To address this, the United States must move beyond reactive diplomacy and adopt a strategic approach that fosters resilient, transparent supply chains. The answer lies in technology transfer, that empowers the DRC to manage its own resources. However, doing so in a volatile environment requires rigorous planning. This article proposes a dual analytical framework that combines Portfolio Analysis (PortMan) with a specialized Risk Register for emerging technologies, to identify, prioritize, and secure U.S. investments in the DRC.

The Strategic Context: Why Tech Transfer?

For years, instability, corruption, and violence in the DRC have impeded Western investment, as U.S. firms must adhere to strict due diligence standards that Chinese state-backed entities often bypass. However, the geopolitical winds are shifting. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi has sought to leverage U.S.-China rivalry, offering the United States direct access to mineral resources in exchange for security assistance.

This proposal creates a unique alignment of interests. By utilizing technology transfer as a policy lever, the U.S. can offer a compelling alternative to China’s extraction-heavy model. Instead of merely exporting raw ore, the U.S. can help build the DRC’s sovereign capacity to map, mine, and process its own wealth. Initiatives like the UN-backed ‘Centre of Excellence for Advanced Battery Research’ already demonstrate the DRC's appetite for in-country value addition.

Effective cooperation should target three high-impact "capability gaps":

• First, Geological Mapping. Much of the DRC’s geological data is over 70 years old. Transferring modern mapping technology could unlock massive greenfield investment potential.
• Second, Responsible Mining. The artisanal mining sector supports millions but is plagued by human rights abuses. Digital traceability solutions can formalize this sector, creating "closed pipeline" supply chains that verify ethical sourcing.
• Third, Domestic Processing. The lack of local refining capacity forces the DRC to export low-value raw ore. U.S. investment in hydrometallurgical processing would keep economic value within the DRC, stabilizing the local economy.

Moving Beyond Ad-Hoc Policy: The PortMan Approach

While the what is clear, the how remains debated. In order to weigh the high risks of DRC engagement against the strategic necessity of action, the Portfolio Analysis and Management (PortMan) method can be utilized. Originally applied to intelligence and R&D program optimization, PortMan allows decision-makers to evaluate a "portfolio" of potential policy interventions, such as workforce training, machinery transfer, or supply chain digitization, based on their Expected Value (EV). 

To understand the utility of this framework, consider a hypothetical policy trade-off. U.S. policymakers might debate two distinct interventions: funding a large-scale hydrometallurgical refinery to process cobalt domestically or deploying a digital traceability system for artisanal miners. A traditional analysis might favor the refinery for its high economic output. However, PortMan calculates the Expected Value by multiplying the potential value by the probability of successful implementation.

Using the Delphi method of structured process of expert consensus, analysts might find that while the refinery offers high value, its feasibility is critically low due to the DRC’s energy deficits and corruption risks. Conversely, the traceability system, though lower in immediate dollar value, may have a much higher probability of success and adoption. By optimizing for these realities, PortMan prevents the U.S. from committing to high-profile "white elephant" projects that look good on paper but fail in practice, ensuring capital is directed toward initiatives that survive the operating environment.

Rather than viewing projects in isolation, this framework forces a calculation:

• Value: How much does this specific intervention contribute to U.S. supply chain security and DRC development?
• Feasibility: What is the probability of success given the political and security realities?

By using expert consensus the Delphi method to quantify these variables, policymakers can use optimization modeling to select the specific mix of projects that maximize strategic impact for a given budget.  This moves the conversation from vague "cooperation" to a data-driven investment strategy, allowing the U.S. policymakers to defend specific program choices to Congress and stakeholders.

Managing "Deep Uncertainty": A Dynamic Risk Register

Optimizing investment is only half the battle; managing the execution in a conflict zone is the other. Traditional risk assessments fail in "deeply uncertain" environments because they rely on historical data. In the context of the DRC, static probabilities are dangerous; a report stating there is a "20% chance of unrest" is useless once a crisis begins.  A more effective approach involves a Risk Register for Emerging Technologies, which uses "proxies for likelihood" rather than static probabilities. The core of this framework is the use of Signpost Indicators, tailored, forward-looking metrics that serve as early warning systems. For example, rather than vaguely monitoring "political instability," the register would track specific adoption lags, such as the abandonment of U.S.-supplied mining equipment or sudden regulatory shifts by the Ministry of Mines.

Instead of a static report, this "living" register would track dynamic indicators such as:

• Security Shifts: Sudden changes in the movement of armed groups near mining sites.
• Regulatory Instability: Unexpected shifts in mining codes or political leadership.
• Adoption Lag: Real-time data on whether transferred technologies are actually being used or abandoned.

Crucially, this framework assigns a specific "Action Owner" to every risk, be it a USAID program manager or a private sector partner. If a signpost turns red (e.g., an uptick in armed group activity near a specific mine site), the Action Owner is pre-authorized to execute a "hedging action," such as temporarily shifting supply routes or activating community engagement protocols. This allows the U.S. to pivot from reactive crisis management to proactive "shaping actions" that influence outcomes before they deteriorate.

The United States faces a critical window to secure its mineral future and counter strategic competitors. Attempting to match China’s spending dollar-for-dollar is neither feasible nor effective. Instead, the U.S. must compete on quality and strategy, integrating PortMan and dynamic Risk Registers to translate national security goals into prioritized investments. This approach provides the transparency needed to build trust with the DRC government and private sector partners, ensuring that cooperation is not just a slogan, but a sustainable reality. In an era of accelerating competition, such systematic methods are not merely beneficial, but also indispensable for securing American economic prosperity and national security.

Policy Recommendations

• Pilot PortMan analysis for $100M DRC investments in geological mapping and tech transfer within 12 months.
• Deploy digital traceability pilots in 2 artisanal cobalt sites, verifying ethical sourcing via blockchain within 18 months.
• Launch U.S State Department led Risk Register with monthly signpost scans for security/regulatory shifts, assigning Action Owners.

Angesom Teklu is a PhD student in public policy, specializing in AI governance, supply chain security, and economic statecraft in Africa.

Photo by aboodi vesakaran