The Liberal Order Is Losing Bangladesh
Nowshin Noor argues that by squeezing Bangladesh, the West is ceding rules-based order to China.
Last week, Bangladesh held its first election since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s regime. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won, taking more than two-thirds of seats.
Abroad, the verdict was framed as a tilt towards the West. After all, the BNP has traditionally cultivated strong relations with the US and Britain, while its rival Jamaat-e-Islami has been more critical of Western political and cultural influence.
That perception gained further traction with voters’ endorsement of the July Charter aimed at restructuring Bangladesh’s governance. The referendum seeks firmer constraints on the executive, strengthens the judiciary, widens participation, and introduces modern rights protections designed to prevent another slide into authoritarian rule — reforms that echo the institutional principles long championed by the liberal order. They also build on a broader reform trajectory set in motion over the past year.
Even during the interim caretaker government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, economic alignment with Western norms gathered pace. This was nowhere more apparent than in the country’s garment sector which contributes around 85% of export earnings. For example, Youngone Corporation, one of the country’s top exporters, has built ESG and CSR standards into its corporate framework to match Western compliance regimes. It has since crossed a $1 billion export milestone from Bangladesh, signaling deep integration into global supply chains. Others, like DBL Group have followed suit, investing in energy efficiency and traceability in order to remain competitive with European buyers bound by environmental scorecards.
Yet the deeper story is more paradoxical: even as Bangladesh’s politics and economy align more closely with liberal norms, Western policies risk driving it in the opposite direction.
Just weeks ago, European Parliament has expanded its “safe third country” concept, allowing asylum claims to be rejected and deported en masse. With Bangladesh designated “safe”, this sets the stage for negotiations over mass deportations, potentially including people not even from the region.
Washington has taken a similarly punitive posture. Despite the elections, Bangladesh remains designated a high-risk country, with visa applications frozen indefinitely. And then there was last year’s tariff shock, when President Trump imposed punitive tariffs, triggering an immediate slump. True, the headline rate has since fallen but the devil is in the details. A little-noted “cotton clause” keeps the deal alive only if Bangladeshi garments are made using American cotton, locking Dhaka into a costly dependency.
Collectively, this should be seen a clear pivot away from even the pretense of a rules-based order in favor of self-interest. Washington is focused on rebalancing trade and financing its promised “tariff dividend” at home. Europe is prioritizing deportations over coherence in its migration policy. All leaving Bangladesh as the expendable party in a far larger game.
Other countries are watching closely.
Across South and Southeast Asia, Western unpredictability has accelerated regional hedging. Indonesia, hit with tariffs, recently joined the anti-Western BRICS alliance and quietly skipped the G7. ASEAN, after being overlooked by successive US administrations, now speaks openly of “strategic multi-alignment” — code for engaging with others, not just the West.
The main beneficiary of this shift is obvious: China.
With vast financial resources and a willingness to fill vacuums the West leaves behind, Beijing has been expanding its role in Bangladesh’s development. Its investments — about $50 billion in infrastructure and a further $2.1 billion since Sheikh Hasina’s fall — are hard currency for a country in need of capital. That Yunus chose China for his first official bilateral visit underscores the geopolitical significance. And Bangladesh is hardly unique; across South and Southeast Asia, Beijing’s combination of capital and patience has outflanked Western influence.
Yet Bangladesh is not drifting blindly between great powers. The country has spent years building an export economy that can absorb investment and translate it into higher standards. Export Processing Zones now dot the country, offering streamlined regulation and incentives for investors in Bangladesh’s most competitive industries. The Korean EPZ in Chattogram hosts firms from the UK and US alongside East Asian manufacturers. The point is not dependence, but diffusion. Foreign investment upgrades local capacity, from factory standards to energy use. Youngone’s experiments with biomass and rooftop solar show how quickly innovations can be tested and then replicated across a developing economy.
If the West wants to preserve influence, it must stop acting as though Bangladesh’s only role is to comply. Punishing it through tariffs, visa freezes and migration outsourcing does not defend the liberal order. It discredits it. And it makes Beijing’s offer look enticingly practical.
The most urgent test is Bangladesh’s graduation from the UN’s Least Developed Country status in November. That milestone sounds triumphant, but it will trigger higher tariffs on exports that currently enter markets duty-free, potentially rising to 12% in Europe and 18% in Canada. The West could choose to cushion that transition with better terms and predictable market access. It could also expand blended finance through DFIs, the World Bank, the EBRD and the ADB to de-risk private investment in ports, logistics, energy and green industrialization.
If it does not, the outcome will be pragmatic. Bangladesh will deepen ties with whichever partner offers reliability and growth. Should that partner prove to be Beijing, it will not be because Dhaka rejected the rules-based order. It will be because the West made participation in that order increasingly costly—and ultimately, less credible.
Nowshin Noor is a Bangladeshi legal and policy professional, she has worked with UNODC Bangladesh, Al Jazeera, and the Commonwealth Secretariat.
Photo by Abdur Rahman Journalist
